Betting Odds of Government Shutdown 2026 Crashes to 4% on Kalshi

Kalshi’s market-tracking betting odds of  government shutdown in 2026 have dropped 33 points overnight to just 4% on September 1. The move came even as Senate negotiators said they were making progress toward a stopgap funding deal.

For Bitcoin and crypto readers, the market provides a snapshot of uncertainty around the funding deadline. It does not, on its own, establish how Bitcoin or other crypto assets will trade if negotiations succeed or fail.

(SOURCE: Kalshi) Why Shutdown Risk Rose Despite Signs of a Senate Deal The increase came alongside positive signals from the Senate.

According to The Hill, negotiators in both parties were nearing an agreement that paired a short-term spending package with new limits on a pending Office of Management and Budget regulation. Under the working framework, funding would extend to December 4.