Bitcoin Accumulation Could Begin by November as VanEck Flags Eight Capitulation Signals

If this cycle is similar to prior bear cycles, Bitcoin may be in an accumulation phase from September to November, said asset manager VanEck.

Eight of the 12 capitulation indicators the firm tracks were still active as of August 12, marking 10 months since Bitcoin peaked in October 2025.

However, VanEck explained that past returns should not be used to forecast prices and noted that their figure for Bitcoin exposure found forward returns from overlapping sets of relatively few observations.

Most indicators in its capitulation framework declare sell conditions when their values reach a very high historical percentile, and price drawdowns are declared upon a drop of at least 35% from a Bitcoin price local maximum.