Bitcoin Faces 87% Fed Hike Odds Wednesday: Will Treasury Save the Rally?

Bitcoin trades near $77,250 three days before the Federal Reserve decides on interest rates, with futures markets pricing an 86.5% chance of a quarter-point hike on Wednesday. Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long argues the bigger shift sits elsewhere.

She says the Treasury Department, not the Fed, now sets the terms for digital dollars. Rate Hike/Cut Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch Tool The Fed Still Owns the Next Three Days Chair Kevin Warsh delivers the decision on September 16, nearly four months after being sworn in.

Prediction markets aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket price the same hike above 80%. Friday’s inflation report did most of the damage. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August after a 0.1% gain in July, lifting the annual rate to 3.4%. The committee already looks split.

It held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, but three officials dissented and wanted an increase then. Bitcoin has already surrendered part of its recent run. Fed hike odds sat at 50/50 on September 4, when BeInCrypto reported BTC climbing toward $82,000.