Bitcoin Is Now Betting on Trump and Xi: The 92% Summit Signal That Could Trigger a Crypto Shock

Ahead of Thursday’s seismic Trump-Xi summit, Polymarket traders are currently pricing a 92% chance that the United States and China reach a tariff agreement by December 31, according to the platform’s live Trump-Xi market page.

On the same day, the odds of a US-China military clash before 2027 sit at just 3%. Those are two very different confidence levels wrapped around the same geopolitical relationship, and the gap between them is the story.

(Source – Polymarkets, US China Tariff Agreement) As Bitcoin mounts a recovery back above $85,000, with price action consolidating around $65,750 Today, despite the Houthis’ advance in Yemen, real-time probability engines, funded by real money, have become one of the fastest-moving gauges of geopolitical risk available to crypto markets.

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