Bitcoin Price Never Closed Below Expectation in 2026 Bear Market

Bitcoin never posted a daily close below its realized price during the current bear market, and the June 2026 low held above that aggregate cost basis.

If price holds above the True Market Mean near $77,000, the June low becomes the shallowest bear-market bottom in Glassnode’s comparison set stretching back to 2017.Bitcoin’s current bear-market phase has looked ugly on a headline-percentage basis at times this year, but the realized-price metric measures something narrower: whether the average holder, in aggregate, was ever underwater.

In the 2018–19 and 2022–23 cycles, Bitcoin price traded below the realized price for months at a stretch.

This time, it didn’t happen once on a closing basis.Glassnode’s data shows that the Percent Supply in Profit fell to roughly the same level at the June low as at the November 2022 bottom; a comparable share of coins was sitting at a loss. The difference is in magnitude.