Bitcoin Price Signal Upside as Rally Meets Fed Risk

Bitcoin price has clawed back to above $70,000 from $60,000 in late August, and traders are now assigning an approximately 85% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday following hotter-than-expected inflation data. But that’s not all.

Long-end Treasury yields nearing 5% are tightening competition for capital, forcing a direct test of whether bitcoin’s momentum can survive a less accommodating Fed.The rebound is real, but it sits well below the highs of last year.

Bitcoin remains 50% off its October 2025 peak above $126,000, meaning this recovery is a bounce off a two-year low rather than a resumption of the prior bull trend.Bitcoin (BTC)24h7d30d1yAll timeThe immediate catalyst is a hot August inflation print that pushed market-implied odds of a Fed hike to around 85% heading into Wednesday’s decision, according to Reuters.

Long-end Treasury yields pressing toward 5% compound the problem for non-yielding, risk-sensitive assets such as bitcoin by raising the opportunity cost of holding them.That trader positioning is a different signal than what economists were forecasting just days earlier.