Bitcoin’s Next Fed Test Is Today’s FOMC Meeting: Will $75K Hold?

Markets are pricing roughly a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, according to the Danske Research Team. The team revised its own call this week and now expects that outcome.

For Bitcoin watchers, the key distinction is between market expectations and a confirmed policy decision: the hike is still expected, but it has not yet been delivered.The research team says tightening now likely represents the path of least resistance, given current market pricing and its longstanding view that rate hikes are eventually on the horizon.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY — U.S.

MARKETS8:30 AM ET — Retail Sales8:30 AM ET — Import & Export Prices10:30 AM ET — EIA Oil Inventories1:00 PM ET — Treasury Auction2:00 PM ET — FOMC RATE DECISION + DOT PLOT2:30 PM ET — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Press Conference…— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 16, 2026 At the same time, it does not regard the decision as completely settled.