CLARITY Act Faces Another Critical Weekend as Passage Odds Slide

The uncertainty around the highly anticipated regulatory bill continues with new negotiations in Washington. New ethics proposals and political disagreements threaten the legislation’s chances of becoming law this year.

Prediction markets now assign a much lower probability of becoming law this year, around 31%-35%, down from the 70% peaks earlier this year.

Highly Important Weekend Popular journalist Eleanor Terrett noted on X earlier today that this weekend will be a “high-stakes waiting game” for supporters of the bill as the White House “considers an ethics counteroffer involving a state attorney general.” The proposal reportedly centers on one of the bill’s biggest remaining sticking points: whether state attorneys general should retain authority in enforcing certain ethics provisions involving federal officials.

Bipartisan negotiations between Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego continue, as both believe the bill has to contain a stronger ethics package than the one proposed by the White House and two Senate Republicans at the end of July.