CLARITY Act Odds Collapse to Record Low as Senate Delays Shake Crypto Market Confidence

Prediction markets hold the lowest chance yet that the CLARITY Act will pass into United States law this year, and some seem to be losing hope that Congress will pass crypto regulation at all.

Even Kalshi, the betting market that allows betting on bill passage between now and the end of the current legislative session, gives only a 20% chance to the bill, despite optimism in the aftermath of its 2025 House passage.

The measure ultimately stalled in the Senate due to contention on a variety of subject matters such as yield limits on stablecoins, anti-money laundering, and ethics rules for public officials. BREAKING: 20% chance Clarity Act becomes law this year — an all-time low.

pic.twitter.com/n3rrEPCsLz— Kalshi Crypto (@Kalshi_Crypto) August 6, 2026 These disagreements have delayed negotiations and steadily weakened expectations that the legislation can gain sufficient momentum before lawmakers leave Washington for the August recess.