Fed October Decision Polymarket Odds: October Rate Hike Sits at 64%

Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market are facing a renewed macroeconomic headwind as traders increasingly anticipate another Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in October. Fed October decision Polymarket odds are sitting at a 65% chance of a rate hike next month.

The latest shift in expectations follows comments from Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, who said further monetary tightening may be needed to bring inflation back toward the central bank’s 2% target. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.116% today, its highest since July 2007.

Biggest one-day move in 18 months. PMI surveys came in much stronger than expected. Fed Governor Barr said more rate hikes are "likely needed." A five-year Treasury auction drew poor demand.

Oil jumped… pic.twitter.com/m0fcs5WCpx— Hedgie (@HedgieMarkets) September 23, 2026 At the same time, fresh economic data pointed to a U.S.