Fed Rate Cut Odds Slashed as Kalshi September Hike Bets Reach 60%–68%

Kalshi is pricing a 25-basis-point September rate increase at 59% against 42% for no change. Other reported measures put the probability at about 60% to 68% before the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

On the other hand, Fed rate-cut odds have dropped to just 1%, as all hope of a possible cut fades.That range creates a clear question for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

If the Federal Reserve holds rates while market pricing continues to favor an increase, the difference between the expected outcome and the decision could prompt a reassessment of bearish positioning.

A hold alone would not establish a bullish outcome; the market response would also depend on the Fed’s accompanying message.