FOMC Odds: A $42M Prediction Market Splits the September Fed Outlook

Prediction-market volume on the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC odds rate decision has topped $42M, with slightly more than half of participants backing a 25-basis-point hike and just over 45% expecting rates to remain unchanged, according to Federal News Network.

The close split puts the Sept. 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the center of the macro calendar for markets, including Bitcoin.The reported market showed little expectation of a rate cut despite President Donald Trump’s pressure for lower borrowing costs.

The choices attracting meaningful interest were a hike or unchanged rates, leaving the September decision closely contested in the reported snapshot.Kalshi on the other hand has over $85M wagered on the FOMC odds for today’s meeting, with only 12% believing that the rates stay the same, and 86% betting on a rate hike,SOURCE: KalshiFOMC Odds: Why the Fed Decision Is Dividing TradersFederal News Network reported that a strong August jobs report added another consideration to the Federal Reserve’s decision.

The Consumer Price Index report is due Sept.