FOMC September 2026 Odds of Rate Hike Surge Over 60%

Traders using CME FedWatch, the CME Group tool that tracks rate-hike probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, now put the FOMC September odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting at over 60%.

Kalshi traders assigned a 57% probability to the same outcome, while Polymarket traders put it at 49%.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s policy statement and press conference land on September 16, and this is also a Summary of Economic Projections meeting, meaning the Fed’s updated dot plot will land alongside whatever decision it makes.

JUST IN : The odds of a rate hike next week have climbed to over 60% pic.twitter.com/yO1CXq2kv6 — Barchart (@Barchart) September 8, 2026 For Bitcoin, the cited reporting is careful to draw a line: this is a shift in the interest-rate backdrop, not evidence of a confirmed price response.