Glassnode: Bitcoin Rebound Is a Local Rally, Not a Trend Reversal

The market has started rewarding dip buyers again, but the on-chain ledger is not yet confirming a durable shift. Bitcoin is still trading below the roughly $68,500 short-term holder cost basis and the $75,800 true market mean.

According to the market update covering Glassnode’s latest models, that pricing structure keeps the market inside a capitulation regime even as leveraged traders begin to lean long again. The divergence is the story.

Perpetual futures demand has turned positive, and ETF flows are stabilizing, but the Coinbase Premium remains negative. In plain terms, derivatives traders are willing to chase a bounce while U.S. spot buyers have not returned with enough force to confirm a change in regime.

Glassnode’s read is blunt: until yields ease and the profit/loss ratio recovers toward 2, any Bitcoin rebound should be treated as a local rally rather than a broader trend reversal.