Grayscale Rules Out Major Crypto Shifts From a Second 2026 Hike

Grayscale says the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike will not drive major changes in crypto markets. Nor would a second increase this year. Head of Research Zach Pandl published the note on Thursday.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% a day earlier. Why 1997 Matters More Than 2022 Pandl drew a line between two very different Fed moves. The central bank began a cyclical shift in March 2022 to contain inflation.

It raised rates by 550 basis points by July 2023. That lifted the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin (BTC) and similar non-interest-bearing assets. Wednesday’s quarter-point move carries no such weight, he argues.

Traders sided with Pandl this week, and Bitcoin climbed instead of selling off. His reference point is March 1997, when Alan Greenspan’s Fed delivered a one-off hike. The Nasdaq bull market kept running.