Polymarket CLARITY Act Odds Slashed to 15% of Being Passed in 2026

Bitcoin trades at $78,646.05, down 0.28% in the last 24 hours, a quiet number for a market that’s watching Washington more than charts right now.

The reason is that Polymarket CLARITY Act odds contract has collapsed from 82% odds of passage in February to just 13% by early August, a move that’s rattled traders betting on regulatory clarity as the next major catalyst.The Senate faces a September 15 cloture vote on H.R.

3633, the bill that would hand the CFTC exclusive authority over spot digital-commodity markets while leaving the SEC in charge of securities-classified tokens and exchange oversight.

Republicans hold 53 seats; they need seven Democrats to cross the aisle to hit the 60-vote threshold.