Polymarket Trump Impeachment Odds Turn on Control of Congress

Prediction Market Polymarket traders price a House impeachment of Donald Trump before his term ends at roughly 68%, against a fraction of that, around 2%, for the same outcome landing before December 31, 2026.

That 33x spread between two contracts asking a nearly identical question is the real story: it’s not a prediction that impeachment is coming, it’s a market pricing the calendar and congressional arithmetic separately from the politics.The Contract Split: Two Clocks, One PresidentPolymarket’s “Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?” market resolves “Yes” if the House passes at least one article of impeachment by simple majority any time before January 20, 2029.

As of its last update on August 24, 2026, that contract was trading around 68%, on roughly $94,463 in cumulative volume since the market opened on March 19, 2026.Source: PolymarketA separate, shorter-dated contract asks the same question but caps the window at December 31, 2026, before the newly elected House even takes its committee assignments.

That contract has traded at a premium of closer to 2%, according to Polymarket pricing referenced in Washington Examiner coverage of the market.Same event, same officeholder, wildly different implied probability, because the two contracts are betting on different Congresses.Why the Math Changes After the MidtermsRepublicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers, and a GOP-controlled House has no institutional...