Sticky Inflation and Strong Jobs Data Challenge Crypto’s Rate-Cut Narrative

The numbers keep refusing to cooperate with the narrative crypto traders want. The latest U.S.

economic releases—weekly jobless claims at 197,000 for the week ending July 25, and June’s core PCE inflation reading of 3.3% year-over-year—signal that the labor market remains tight and price pressures are not fading fast.

The data, covered in the original report, landed below the expected 200,000 claims and matched inflation forecasts, yet the combination leaves little room for the aggressive rate cuts that many digital-asset investors had penciled in for late 2026.

Bitcoin and ether have spent the year so far responding decisively to every shift in Fed expectations. When soft data appeared, crypto jumped. When hawkish rhetoric returned, rallies stalled.