The 18-Year Housing Cycle Says the Next Market Crash Is Close

Investors are watching stocks and Bitcoin for the next major peak. Popular macro analyst Jason Pizzino thinks the first warning has already arrived from US housing. His thesis uses an 18-year property cycle drawn from roughly 220 years of US sales data.

The current cycle began around 2011–2012 and places the housing peak in 2025–26, with a possible trough around 2029–30. “Once everyone’s in, you’re at the peak,” Pizzino said. The latest data does not prove the cycle. But it does make the call harder to dismiss.

US home prices rose 1.5% year-on-year in June, while falling in real terms for a 13th straight month.  July new-home sales dropped 10.5%. The median price fell to $393,800, its lowest in five years. Builder confidence sits at 35, far below the neutral 50 line.

18-year US Real Estate and Economic Cycle. Source: Substack Housing First. Stocks Could Be Next Pizzino’s key signal is D.R. Horton. The homebuilder peaked before the broader market during the last housing cycle.